Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.