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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.