Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Javier Parker
Javier Parker

Lena is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and statistical modeling.

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